The Challenging Time for Indonesia Government Bond During Covid-19 Pandemic

Authors

  • Mulyono Bina Nusantara University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21512/bbr.v14i2.8821

Keywords:

government bond yields, Covid-19 pandemic, financial securities

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has hit various countries and impacted the bond market. The research aimed to analyze the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on government bond yields. The research contributed to developing a study on the influence of the Covid-19 outbreak on the bond market. Using an event study allowed observers to measure the impact of a particular event on financial securities. The method used was a differential test on a paired sample that tested the yield of government bonds before and after the announcement of the Covid-19 pandemic. The sample data used were the yields of government bonds at the end of 2019 and 2020. The research also used a selection of government bond yields in the Indonesia Bond Market Directory issued by the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results show a significant influence of the Covid-19 pandemic on government bond yields. All government bond yields sampled decrease. The most significant decline occurs in government bonds with a maturity period of 1 to 5 years. The research concludes that the Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant effect on reducing the yield of government bonds. Hence, it is recommended that the government keep low-interest rates in the short term so that the yield on government bonds with maturity in the short term remains stable.

Dimensions

Plum Analytics

Author Biography

Mulyono, Bina Nusantara University

Management Department, BINUS Business School Undergraduate Program

References

Akram, T. (2022). A simple model of the long-term interest rate. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 45(1), 130–144.

Akram, T., & Al-Helal Uddin, S. (2022). The empirics of long-term Mexican government bond yields. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 1–23.

Becker, B., & Benmelech, E. (2021). The resilience of the US corporate bond market during financial crises (Working paper). National Bureau of Economic Research.

Boukhatem, J., Ftiti, Z., & Sahut, J. M. (2021). Bond market and macroeconomic stability in East Asia: A nonlinear causality analysis. Annals of Operations Research, 297, 53–76.

BPS - Statistics Indonesia. (2021). Statistik Indonesia 2021. Retrieved from https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2021/02/26/938316574c78772f27e9b477/statistik-indonesia-2021.html

Canetg, F., & Kaufmann, D. (2022). Overnight rate and signalling effects of central bank bills. European Economic Review, 143(April), 1–15.

Danilowska, A. (2021). The impact of the COVID19 pandemic on the credit market in Poland. European Research Studies Journal, 24(3), 229–240.

Elgin, C., Yalaman, A., Yasar, S., & Basbug, G. (2021). Economic policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of central bank independence. Economics Letters, 204(July), 1–8.

El-Khatib, R., & Samet, A. (2021). The COVID-19 impact: Evidence from emerging markets. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/Abstract=3685013

Grabowski, W., Janus, J., & Stawasz-Grabowska, E. (2023). The COVID-19 pandemic and financial markets in Central Europe: Macroeconomic measures and international policy spillovers. Emerging Markets Review, 54(March), 1–26.

Hao, X., Sun, Q., & Xie, F. (2022). The COVID-19 pandemic, consumption and sovereign credit risk: Cross-country evidence. Economic Modelling, 109(April), 1–13.

Indonesia Stock Exchange. (2020). Indonesia bond market directory 2020. PT Bursa Efek Indonesia.

Kumar, S. (2022). Harvesting the yield curve mispricing: Evidence from the Indian government bond market. Indian Institute of Management Calcutta.

Leippold, M., & Matthys, F. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty and the yield curve. Review of Finance, 26(4), 751–797.

Li, S. S., & Zhang, M. A. (2022). A review of the influence factors of corporate bond credit spread. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 10(2), 124–127.

Liu, F., Kong, D., Xiao, Z., Zhang, X., Zhou, A., & Qi, J. (2022). Effect of economic policies on the stock and bond market under the impact of COVID-19. Journal of Safety Science and Resilience, 3(1), 24–38.

Mishra, P., Pandey, C. M., Singh, U., Gupta, A., Sahu, C., & Keshri, A. (2019). Descriptive statistics and normality tests for statistical data. Annals of Cardiac Anesthesia, 22(1), 67–72.

Mulyono, & Saraswati, N. (2020). Investasi dan pasar modal. Manggu Makmur Tanjung Lestari.

Nagarakatte, S. G., & Natchimuthu, N. (2022). Impact of Brexit on bond yields and volatility spillover across France,

Germany, UK, USA, and India’s debt markets. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 19(3), 189–202.

Nozawa, Y., & Qiu, Y. (2021). Corporate bond market reactions to quantitative easing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Banking & Finance, 133(December), 1–20.

Olson, E., Valcarcel V. J., & Wohar M. (2022). Yield curve shocks: Identification and information sufficiency. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4160051

Rebucci, A., Hartley, J. S., & Jiménez, D. (2022). An event study of COVID-19 central bank quantitative easing in advanced and emerging economies. In A. Chudik, C. Hsiao, & A. Timmermann (Eds.), Essays in honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and macro modeling (Vol. 43, pp. 291–322). Emerald Publishing Limited.

Sever, C., Goel, R., Drakopoulos, D., & Papageorgiou, E. (2020). Effects of emerging market asset purchase program announcements on financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. IMF Working Papers, 2020(292), 1–20.

To, B. C. N., Nguyen, T. V. T., Nguyen, N. T. H., & Ho, H. T. (2022). Responses of the international bond markets to COVID-19 containment measures. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(3), 1–11.

Van Binsbergen, J. H., Diamond, W. F., & Grotteria, M. (2022). Risk-free interest rates. Journal of Financial Economics, 143(1), 1–29.

Wei, B., & Yue, V. Z. (2020). The Federal Reserve’s liquidity backstops to the municipal bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy Hub, 1–10.

Wei, X., & Han, L. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on transmission of monetary policy to financial markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74(March), 1–11.

Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., Aharon, D. Y., & Umar, Z. (2022). Term spreads and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international sovereign bond markets. Finance Research Letters, 44(January), 1–6.

Zhou, S., & Meng, X. (2023). Are government bonds still safe havens in the context of COVID-19? Applied Economics Letters, 30(1), 14–18.

Downloads

Published

2023-06-14
Abstract 281  .
PDF downloaded 349  .