The Taliban’s Victory as a Strategic Catalyst: Radicalism in Indonesia After a Flawed Global Peace Process

Sugeng Riyanto; Bilveer Singh; Ali Muhammad

doi:10.21512/jas.v13i2.14435

Authors

Sugeng Riyanto Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta
Bilveer Singh National University of Singapore
Ali Muhammad Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21512/jas.v13i2.14435

Keywords:

radicalism, Indonesia, Al Jamaah AL Islamiyah, Taliban, social movement theory, Doha Agreement

Abstract

The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 marked a pivotal moment in global discourse, widely interpreted as a monumental victory for jihadist movements. This event was not a simple military takeover but the culmination of a flawed diplomatic initiative (the 2020 Doha Agreement) and a reflection of a broader U.S. grand strategy of retrenchment. In Indonesia, the principal locus of Jemaah Islamiyah activity, this event was expected to inspire renewed radical mobilization and violent escalation. However, this anticipated surge did not materialize. Instead, the post-2021 period has been characterized by ideological recalibration. This research contends that the reaction to the Taliban's return is best understood through the analytical lens of Social Movement Theory (SMT), situated within the context of a failed peace process. It argued that the Taliban's victory acted as a critical external shock that primarily functioned as ideological validation for the patient, long-term strategies of established groups like Al Jamaah Al Islamiyah (AJAI). The event simultaneously intensified the “framing contestation” with its pro-Islamic State (IS) rivals and, most critically, accelerated AJAI’s strategic evolution towards socio-political infiltration (tamkin siyasi). This has reshaped the primary radical threat in the region from overt attacks to strategic, long-term subversion, backed by AJAI's profound organizational resilience. The research analyzed these dynamics by examining shifts in political opportunities, resource mobilization, and framing processes, demonstrating how failures in global peacemaking can have complex and unforeseen consequences on regional extremist landscapes.

Dimensions

References

Adi, A. S., & Purba, I. P. M. H. (2021). The victory of the Taliban and its influence on the Jamaah Islamiyah group in Indonesia. Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Arts and Humanities 2021 (IJCAH 2021, 618, 617-622. https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k. 211223.105

Adyatama, E. (2022, August 21). Eks Jamaa’ah Islamiyah sebut kemenangan Taliban bisa jadi pintu rekruitmen teroris. Tempo. https://nasional.tempo.co/read/1497097/eks-jamaah-islamiyah-sebut-kemenangan-taliban-bisa-jadi-pintu-rekrutmen-teroris

Arianti, V. (2022). Jemaah Islamiyah after the 2002 Bali bombings: Two decades of continuity and transformation. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, 14(5), 17-28.

Arianti, V., & Rahmah, U. (2022, September 15). What the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan means for IS supporters in Indonesia. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/what-the-taliban-takeover-in-afghanistan-means-for-is-supporters-in-indonesia/

Ashour, O. (2009) The deradicalization of Jihadist: Transforming armed Islamist movements. Routledge

Barton, G. (2005). Jemaah Islamiyah: Radical Islamism in Indonesia. NUS Press.

Bunzel, C., 2015. From paper state to caliphate: The ideology of the Islamic State. The Brookings Institution.

Center for Dialogue and Progress-Geneva. (2022). A critical analysis of the Doha Peace Process: Lessons and prospects. Center for Dialogue and Progress-Geneva. https://cdpg.ch/wp-content/uploads/Report.pdf

Cipto, B. (2018). Strategi China Merebut Status Superpower. Pustaka Pelajar.

Gerges, F.A. (2016). ISIS: A History. Princeton University Press.

Ghoni, M. H., & Masyhar, A. (2022). Legal analysis of the modus operandi of terrorism funding under the guise of charity. Indonesian Journal of Counter Terrorism and National Security, 4(1), 1–36. https://doi.org/10.15294/ijctns.v4i1.24075

Hafez, M.M. (2023). Why Muslim rebel: Repression and resistance in the Islamic World, Lynne Rienner Publisher.

Hassan, H. (2018). ISIS: Inside the army of terror (updated version). Regan Arts.

IPAC. (2021, September 7). The impact of the Taliban victory on Indonesia’s Jemaah Islamiyah (IPAC Report No. 73). https://understandingconflict.org/en/publications/The-Impact-of-the-Taliban-Victory-on-Indonesias-Jemaah-Islamiyah

Izza, A., & Basuki, L. W. (2024). The impact of the U.S. military withdrawal on Afghanistan's food security (2021-2022). Journal of Social Political Sciences, 5(2), 186-204.

Khan, M. K. (2020). Afghanistan at the cross-roads after Doha Agreement. CISS Insight Journal, 8(2), 97-117.

Malik, A. (2020). The Afghan Peace Agreement: Repercussions for South Asia. NUST Journal of International Peace & Stability, 3(2), 93–98. https://doi.org/10.37540/njips.v3i2.61

McAdam, D. (1982). Political process and the development of Black insurgency, 1930-1970. University of Chicago Press.

McCarthy, J. D., & Zald, M. N. (1977). Resource mobilization and social movements: A partial theory. American Journal of Sociology, 82(6), 1212–1241. https://doi.org/10.1086/226464

Meyer, D. S. (2004). Protest and political opportunities. Annual Review of Sociology, 30, 125–145. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.30.012703.110545

Mizuno, Y., & Aidulsyah, F. (2021, September 2). Indonesian sympathy for a 'changed' Taliban: more harm than good. Indonesia at Melbourne. https://indonesiaatmelbourne. unimelb.edu.au/indonesian-sympathy-for-a-changed-taliban-more-harm-than-good/

Muhammad, A. (2015). Indonesia's experience in the war on terror. The Phinisi Press.

Nuraniyah, N., & Solahudin, S. (2024). From non-violent to violent radicalization and vice versa: Three case studies from Indonesia. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2023.2296236

Praditya, Y. (2024). When cultural expressions exploited by the right-wing groups: A comparative analysis between the case of Indonesia and Germany. Journal of Terrorism Studies, 6(1), 1-26.

Ramakrishna, K. (2022). Jemaah Islamiyah 20 years after the Bali bombings: Continuity and change. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, 14(5), 1-6.

Sadr, O. (2024). How peace negotiations fail: The case of Afghanistan and the Taliban (2020–2021). Afghanistan, 7, 112–134. https://doi.org/10.3366/afg.2024.0147

Satria, A. (2023, November 2). Understanding Jemaah Islamiyah's organisational resilience (2019-2022). International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. https://icct.nl/publication/ understanding-jemaah-islamiyahs-organisational-resilience-2019-2022

Selçuk, M., & Panagiotou, N. (2020). Impact of Isis on Radical Groups of Southeast Asia Countries. Islamic World and Politics, 4(1), 1–14.

Semple, M., Raphel, R. L., & Rasikh, S. (2021). An independent assessment of the Afghanistan peace process June 2018 – May 2021. Political Settlements Research Programme. https://www.politicalsettlements.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/An-independent-assessment-of-the-Afghanistan-peace-process.pdf

Singh, B. (2007). The Talibanization of Southeast Asia: Losing the war on terror to Islamist extremists. Praeger Security International.

Singh, B. (2022). Taliban’s re-takeover of Afghanistan and implications for Southeast Asia. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, 14(4), 1–6.

Snow, D. A., & Benford, R. D. (2000). Framing processes and social movements: An overview and assessment. Annual Review of Sociology, 26, 611–639.

Solahudin. (2013). The Roots of Terrorism in Indonesia: From Darul Islam to Jemaah Islamiyah. Cornell University Press.

Surwandono, & Ahmadi, S. (2011) Resolusi konflik dunia Islam. Graha Ilmu

Tarrow, S. (2011). Power in movement: Social movements and contentious politics. Cambridge University Press

van Dijk, C. (1981). Rebellion under the Banner of Islam: The Darul Islam in Indonesia. Martinus Nijhoff.

von der Mehden, F. R. (2005). Radical Islam in Southeast Asia and its challenge to U.S. Policy. James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University.

Wardoyo, B. (2024). Great power politics and United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan. Global Strategis, 18(1), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.20473/jgs.18.1.2024.1-28

Wibowo, A. B. (2023). Afghanistan, neo-Taliban and the possibility of terrorism escalation in Indonesia from a national security perspective. Journal Middle East and Islamic Studies, 10(1), 1–15.

Winter, C. (2015). The virtual “Caliphate”: Understanding Islamic state’s propaganda strategy. Quilliam.

World Food Programme. (2021). WFP Afghanistan: Situation report. WFP. https://reliefweb. int/report/afghanistan/wfp-afghanistan-situation-report-27-october-2021

Zenn, J., 2020. Unmasking Boko Haram: Exploring Global Jihad in Nigeria. Lynne Rienner.