Stock Market Reaction to Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Election

Authors

  • Erna Listyaningsih Universitas Malahayati
  • Eka Sariningsih Universitas Malahayati
  • Ritali Mudrikah Universitas Malahayati

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21512/bbr.v11i2.6302

Keywords:

stock market, Indonesia Presidential Election, Indonesia Legislative Election, Jakarta Islamic Index (JII)

Abstract

The research investigated the reaction to Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) stocks around the Indonesia Presidential and Legislative Election in 2019. It was the first time that the election of the president and legislative assembly was held on the same day in Indonesia. The sample used was 30 stocks of JII. The event study methodology was conducted on this issue. The results show a significant positive abnormal return on the tenth day before the event and the seventh day after the event. From the liquidity, it is found that this event has a strong effect on Trading Volume Activity (TVA) of JII stocks surrounding the event. Additionally, another liquidity proxy, namely bid-ask spread, has the same result by experiencing a significant positive difference before and after the event. These results indicate that the information on the event is sufficient to influence the price, TVA, and size of the bid-ask spread of JII stock.

Dimensions

Plum Analytics

References

Akbar, E. P., Saerang, I. S., & Maramis, J. B. (2019). Reaksi pasar modal terhadap pengumuman kemenangan Presiden Joko Widodo berdasarkan keputusan KPU pemilu periode 2019-2024 (Studi pada perusahaan BUMN yang terdaftar di BEI). JMBI UNSRAT: Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis dan Inovasi Universitas Sam Ratulangi, 6(2), 123-131.

Asmorojati, W., Diana, N., & Afifudin, A. (2017). Reaksi investor terhadap pengumuman kebijakan tax amnesty pada tanggal 1 Juli 2016 (Evet study pada perusahaan LQ45 yang terdaftar di BEI). Jurnal Ilmiah Riset Akuntansi, 6, 27-41.

Białkowski, J., Gottschalk, K., & Wisniewski, T. P. (2008). Stock market volatility around national elections. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1941-1953.

Blau, B. M., Griffith, T. G., & Whitby, R. J. (2019). Information in stock prices: The case of the 2016 US presidential election. Applied Economics, 51(40), 4385-4396.

Bohmann, M., Michayluk, D., Patel, V., & Walsh, K. (2019). Liquidity and earnings in event studies: Does data granularity matter? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 54(April), 118-131.

Budiawati, D. A. (2019). Indeks Syariah menguat sambut pemilu 2019. Retrieved January 20th, 2020 from https://www.dream.co.id/dinar/jelang-pemiluindeks-syariah-menguat-190416i.html

Corwin, S. A., & Schultz, P. (2012). A simple way to estimate bid‐ask spreads from daily high and low prices. The Journal of Finance, 67(2), 719-760.

Diaraya, Haryanto, L., Lawi, A., Amir, S., Navira, A., & Raya, A. R. (2019). An analysis of Fama and French three factor model in market reaction to Indonesia presidential election in 2019. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1341(6), 1-13.

Hutami, R. N., & Ardiyanto, M. D. (2015). Abnormal return dan trading volume activity sebelum dan setelah pemilihan umum presiden secara langsung 9 Juli 2014 (Studi kasus pada saham LQ45). Diponegoro Journal of Accounting, 4(2), 1-4.

Jogiyanto, H. (2015). Teori portofolio dan analisis investasi (10th ed.). Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Leblang, D., & Mukherjee, B. (2005). Government partisanship, elections, and the stock market: Examining American and British stock returns, 1930–2000. American Journal of Political Science, 49(4), 780-802.

Leirvik, T., Fiskerstrand, S. R., & Fjellvikås, A. B. (2017). Market liquidity and stock returns in the Norwegian stock market. Finance Research Letters, 21(May), 272-276.

Listyaningsih, E., & Krishnamurti, C. (2016). How is the volatility of Jakarta Islamic Index stocks? Jurnal Bisnis dan Manajemen, 17(2), 109-122.

MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event studies in economics and finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.

Mansur, F., & Jumaili, S. (2014). Reaksi pasar modal terhadap peristiwa pemilihan umum tahun 2014 pada perusahaan terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Penelitian Universitas Jambi Seri Humaniora, 16(2), 59-68.

Manurung, H. (2019). Pengaruh pemilu serentak terhadap return saham di Indonesia (Studi kasus saham LQ-45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Journal for Business and Entrepreneurship, 3(1), 12-28.

Nugraha, C. H. A., & Suroto. (2019). Abnormal return and trading volume activity before and after presidential election 2019 (Study on LQ-45 stock on February-July 2019). Media Ekonomi dan Manajemen, 34(2), 229-241.

Pamungkas, A., Suhadak, & Endang, M. G. W. (2015). Pengaruh pemilu Presiden Indonesia tahun 2014 terhadap abnormal return dan trading volume activity (Studi pada perusahaan pada perusahaan yang tercatat sebagai anggota indeks Kompas100). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 21(2), 1-9.

Prasiska, Y., & Nuzula, N. F. (2018). Analisis abnormal return dan bid-ask spread sebelum dan sesudah stock split (Studi pada perusahaan go public di BEI tahun 2013-2017). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 59(1), 61-67.

Purba, S., & Silalahi, M. (2017). Dampak quick count pilpres 2014 terhadap harga kurs USD, abnormal return dan aktivitas volume perdagangan saham di BEI (Uji kasus pada saham yang terdaftar dalam kelompok perusahaan LQ-45). Jurnal Ilmiah Methonomi, 3(1), 134-142.

Ramesh, A. (2015). Return volatility around national elections: Evidence from India. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 189(May) 163-168.

Rika, H. (2019). Euforia kemenangan sementara Jokowi-Ma’ruf hijaukan IHSG. Retrieved December 17th, 2019 from https://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20190418134939-92-387633/euforiakemenangan-sementara-jokowi-maruf-hijaukanihsg

Ripamonti, A. (2016). Corwin-Schultz bid-ask spread estimator in the Brazilian stock market. BARBrazilian Administration Review, 13(1), 76-97.

Sari, N. P. T. P., Purnamawati, I. G. A., & Herawati, N. T. (2017). Analisis komparatif saham LQ45 sebelum dan sesudah pilpres Amerika Serikat 2016. JIMAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Akuntansi) Undiksha, 7(1), 1-10.

Setiawan, R., & Nisa, Z. I. (2020). Reaksi pasar terhadap hasil quick count pemilu Presiden Indonesia 2019. Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, & Akuntansi), 4(1), 288-296.

Sihotang, E. M., & Mekel, P. A. (2015). Reaksi pasar modal terhadap pemilihan umum Presiden tanggal 9 Juli 2014 di Indonesia. Jurnal EMBA: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis dan Akuntansi, 3(1), 951-960.

Sopyana, N. P. L., & Yasa, G. W. (2016). Perbedaan reaksi pasar modal terhadap peristiwa pemilihan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden Republik Indonesia tahun 2014. Jurnal Buletin Studi Ekonomi, 21(2),136-146.

Suryani, N. N. W., & Rasmini, N. K. (2019). Analisis reaksi pasar atas peristiwa pilkada serentak tahun 2018. E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 27(2), 1171-1201.

Suwaryo, S. (2008). Dampak pemilu Presiden dan Wakil Presiden terhadap abnormal return investor. Performance: Jurnal Personalia, Financial, Operasional, Marketing dan Sistem Informasi, 7(2), 1-19.

Wahyu, I. W. G., & Lasmini, N. N. (2019). Reaksi pasar modal Indonesia terhadap penyelenggaraan pemilihan umum serentak 2019 di Indonesia. In Seminar Ilmiah Nasional Teknologi, Sains, dan Sosial Humaniora (SINTESA) (Vol. 2, No. 1).

Wibowo, A., & Darmanto, S. (2019). Impact of quick count result of president election on stock prices and trade activities in the Indonesian capital market. Saudi Journal of Business and Management Studies, 4(6), 487-493.

Zulfitra, Z., & Tumanggor, M. (2019). Pemilu serentak 2019 di Indonesia memberikan pengaruh terhadap likuiditas saham return saham dan harga saham LQ45 dibursa efek Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Efektif, 2(1), 145-152.

Downloads

Published

2020-07-31
Abstract 645  .
PDF downloaded 561  .