Road to ASEAN Political Security Community Vision 2025: Understanding Convergence and Divergence in ASEAN Voting Behaviors in the UNGA

Authors

  • Tangguh Chairil International Relations Department, Faculty of Humanities, Bina Nusantara University, Indonesia
  • Ratu Ayu Asih Kusuma Putri Melbourne Law School, University of Melbourne, Australia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0911-0735
  • Sukmawani Bela Pertiwi International Relations Department, Faculty of Humanities, Bina Nusantara University, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4545-3260

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21512/jas.v10i2.8175

Keywords:

ASEAN Political Security Community, APSC Vision 2025, Convergence, UN General Assembly, Voting Behavior

Abstract

While the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) Blueprint 2025 envisages a centrality of regional architecture in responding to security challenges in the region, divided positions among the member states – mostly visible in the South China Sea dispute – have deepened the pessimism on the fate of APSC. Notwithstanding the persisting intra-ASEAN disunity, the organization has been projecting the goal of ASEAN centrality in the global political arena. The goal highlights ASEAN’s emerging role as the ‘hub’ of regional cooperation in Asia-Pacific hence cohesion is highly expected. This paper aims to examine ASEAN cohesion and how it aligns with the institution’s community-building project. To this aim, it primarily looks at the pattern of divergence and convergence in ASEAN voting behavior across security issues discussed in the UN General Assembly. It also underscores the underlying factors behind the emerging patterns. Using Agreement Index (AI), this paper found that ASEAN member states’ voting highly converges on colonialism, the law of the sea, the Mediterranean region, military expenditures, outer space, peace, and transnational crimes. Alternatively, voting diverges on resolutions related to arms transfer, counterterrorism, and armed conflict. Contributing factors to this pattern include member states' preferences, the identity, value, norms, and cognitive prior of the regional organization, as well as alliance and major powers’ preferences.

Dimensions

Plum Analytics

Author Biography

Tangguh Chairil, International Relations Department, Faculty of Humanities, Bina Nusantara University, Indonesia

Department of International Relations

Subject Content Coordinator of Security Studies

References

Acharya, A. (2017). The Myth of ASEAN Centrality. Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs, 273-279.

Algieri, F. (1999). The Coherence Dilemma of EU External Relations: The European Asia Policy. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 4, 81-99.

APHR. (2020, November 9). Lawmakers Rally Against the Death Penalty in the Philippines. Retrieved from ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR): https://aseanmp.org/tag/death-penalty/.

Arms Trade Treaty. (2020, August 07). Treaty Status. Retrieved from Arms Trade Treaty: https://thearmstradetreaty.org/treaty-status.html?templateId=209883.

ASEAN. (1976, February 24). The Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC).

ASEAN. (2003, October 7). Declaration of ASEAN Concord (Bali Concord II). Retrieved from BAPPENAS: https://www.bappenas.go.id/files/8913/6508/2376/c7__20081123070254__1022__9.pdf.

ASEAN. (2011). Bali Declaration on ASEAN Community in a Global Community of Nations "Bali Concord III". Retrieved from Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: https://kemlu.go.id/download/L3NpdGVzL3B1c2F0L0RvY3VtZW50cy9LZWJpamFrYW4vQmFsaSUyMENvbmNvcmQlMjBJSUklMjAoUmVhZHklMjBmb3IlMjBTaWduYXR1cmUpLnBkZg==.

ASEAN. (2015). ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together. Jakarta: The ASEAN Secretariat.

ASEAN. (2015, November). ASEAN Community Vision 2025. Retrieved from asean.org: https://www.asean.org/wp-content/uploads/images/2015/November/aec-page/ASEAN-Community-Vision-2025.pdf.

ASEAN. (2015). ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint 2025. The ASEAN Secretariat.

ASEAN. (2015). ASEAN Political Security Community Blueprint 2025. The ASEAN Secretariat.

ASEAN. (2015). ASEAN Socio Cultural Community Blueprint 2025. The ASEAN Secretariat.

Bailey, M. A., & Voeten, E. (2018). A Two Dimensional Analysis of Seventy Years of United Nations Voting. Public Choice, 176, 33-55.

Bailey, M. A., Strezhnev, A., & Voeten, E. (2015). Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(2), 430-456.

Beeson, M. (2016). Can ASEAN Cope with China?. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 35(1), 5-28.

Beeson, M. (2022). Decentered? ASEAN's Struggle to Accommodate Great Power Competition. Global Studies Quarterly, 2(1), ksab044.

Burmester, N., & Jankowski, M. (2014). The Unsolved Puzzle: Pacific Asia's Voting Cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly—A Response to Peter Ferdinand. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 16(4), 680-689.

Carbone, M. (2009). Policy Coheernce and EU Development Policy. Oxon: Routledge.

CCM. (n.d.). The Convention on Cluster Munitions. Retrieved from The Convention on Cluster Munitions: https://www.clusterconvention.org/.

Cheok, C., & Chen, Y. (2019). Assessing ASEAN's Relevance: Have the Right Questions Been Asked? Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 11-24.

Chirathivat, S., & Langhammer, R. J. (2020). ASEAN and the EU Challenged by “Divide and Rule” Strategies of the US and China Evidence and Possible Reactions. International Economics and Economic Policy, 17(3), 659-670.

den Hertog, L., & Stroß, S. (2013). Coherence in EU External Relations: Concepts and Legal Rooting of An Ambigous Term. European Foreign Affairs Review, 18(3), 373-388.

Dunst, C. (2021). The Myanmar Coup as an ASEAN Inflection Point. Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Special Issue, 37-43.

Emmers, R. (2016). Enduring Mistrust and Conflict Management in Southeast Asia: An Assessment of ASEAN as a Security Community. TRaNS: Trans-Regional and -National Studies of Southeast Asia, 75-97.

ERIA. (2019, June 11). ASEAN Vision 2040: Towards a Bolder and Stronger ASEAN Community. Retrieved from Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia: https://www.eria.org/uploads/media/7.AV2040_VOL_1_Integrative_Chapter.pdf.

Ferdinand, P. (2013). ASEAN at the UN. Political Studies Association Annual Conference. Cardiff: Poilitical Studies Association.

Ferdinand, P. (2014). Foreign Policy Convergence in Pacific Asia: The Evidence from Voting in the UN General Assembly. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 16(4), 662-679.

Foot, R. (1979). The European Community's Voting Behaviour at the United Nations General Assembly. Journal of Common Market Studies, 17, 350.

Gauttier, P. (2004). Horizontal Coherence and External Competences of European Union. European Law Journal, 10(1), 23-41.

Gebhard, C. (2017). The Problem of Coherence in the EU's International Relations. In C. Hill, M. Smith, & S. Vanhoonacker, International Relations and the European Union (3rd Edition) (pp. 123-142). Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Ginsberg, R. H. (1989). Foreign Policy Actions of the European Community: The Politics of Scale. Lynne Rienner Publishers.

Ginsberg, R. H. (1999). Conceptualizing the European Union as an International Actor: Narrowing the Theoretical Capability‐Expectations Gap. Journal of Common Market Studies, 37(3), 429-454.

Goodwin, G. (1960). The Expanding United Nations: I-Voting Patterns. International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-), 36(2), 174-187.

Graham, E. (2013). Southeast Asia in the US Rebalance: Perceptions from a Divided Region. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 305-332.

Haacke, J. (2008). ASEAN and Political Change in Myanmar: Towards A Regional Initiative? Contemporary Southeast Asia, 30(3), 351-378.

Haas, E. B., & Rowe, E. T. (1973). Regional Organizations in the United Nations: Is There Externalization?. International Studies Quarterly, 17(1), 3-54.

Hagan, J. D. (1989). Domestic Political Regime Changes and Third World Voting Realignments in the United Nations, 1946–84. International Organization, 43(3), 505-541.

Hagan, J. D. (1989). Domestic Political Regime Changes and Third World Voting Realignments in the United Nations, 1946–84. International Organization, 43(3), 505-541.

Heng, K. (2020, August 15). ASEAN's Challenges and the Way Forward. Retrieved from The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/aseans-challenges-and-the-way-forward/.

Hill, C. (1993). The Capability-Expectations gap or Conceptualizing Europe's International Role. Journal of Common Market Studies, 31(3), 305-328.

Hillion, C. (2008). Tous pour un, un pour tous! Coherence in the External Relations of the European Union. In M. Cremona, Developments in EU External Relations Law (pp. 10-36). Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Hix, S., Noury, A., & Roland, G. (2005). Power to the Parties: Cohesion and Competition in the European Parliament, 1979–2001. British Journal of Political Science, 35(2), 209-234.

Hoebink, P. (1999). Coherent and Development Policy: The Case of European Union. In J. Forster, & O. Stokke, Policy Coherence in Development Cooperation. Oxon: Routledge.

Hoffmeister, J. (2008). Inter-Pillar Coherence in the European Union's Civilian Crisis Management. In S. Blockmans, The European Union and Crisis Management - Policy and Legal Aspects (pp. 157-180). The Hague: T.M.C. Asser Press.

Holcombe, R. G., & Sobel, R. S. (1996). The Stability of International Coalitions in United Nations Voting from 1946 to 1973. Public Choice, 86, 17-34.

Holloway, S. (1990). Forty Years of United Nations General Assembly Voting. Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique, 23(2), 279-296.

Hosli, M. O., van Kampen, E., Meijerink, F., & Tennis, K. (2010). Voting Cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly: The Case of the European Union. Fifth Pan-European Conference. Porto: ECPR.

Hug, S., & Lukács, R. (2014). Preferences or Blocs? Voting in the United Nations Human Rights Council. The Review of International Organizations, 9, 83-106.

Human Rights Watch. (2020, November 24). Asian Nations Reject UN Vote Against Death Penalty. Retrieved from Human Rights Watch: https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/11/25/asian-nations-reject-un-vote-against-death-penalty.

Hurwitz, L. (1974). The EEC in the United Nations: The Voting Behaviour of Eight Countries, 1948-1973. Journal of Common Market Studies, 13, 224.

ICAN. (n.d.). Signature and Ratification. Retrieved from The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons: https://www.icanw.org/signature_and_ratification_status.

Iida, K. (1988). Third World Solidarity: The Group of 77 in the UN General Assembly. International Organization, 42(2), 375-395.

Jang, J., & Chen, Y.-c. (2019). Divergence amid Consensus in Southeast Asian Foreign Policy: Roll Call Voting Analysis across International Issues in the United Nations General Assembly (1991–2018). Asian Affairs: An American Review, 46(2-3), 47-62.

Jin, X., & Hosli, M. O. (2013). Pre- and Post-Lisbon: European Union Voting in the United Nations General Assembly. West European Politics, 36(6), 1274-1291.

Jones, L. (2015). Explaining the Failure of the ASEAN Economic Community: The Primacy of Domestic Political Economy. The Pacific Review, 647-670.

Jusoh, S., Damuri, Y., & Ramli, I. (2019). Regional Regulatory Coherence in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations: The Case of Competition Law and Intellectual Property. In P. Intal, & M. Pangestu, Integrated and Connected Seamless ASEAN Economic Community (pp. 127-171). Jakarta: ERIA.

Kim, S. Y., & Russett, B. (1996). The New Politics of Voting Alignments in the United Nations General Assembly. International Organization, 50(4), 629-652.

Kissack, R. (2009). When European Union Member State Voting Cohesion Does Not Matter: Lessons Learnt About Majoritarian Decision-Making from the ILO. Studia Diplomatica, 55-73.

Le Thu, H. (2019). China's Dual Strategy of Coercion and Inducement Towards ASEAN. The Pacific Review, 32(1), 20-36.

Li, T. H. (2008). The ASEAN Human Rights Body: Incorporating Forgotten Promises for Policy Coherence and Efficacy. Singapore Year Book of International Law and Contributors, 12, 239-255.

Lijphart, A. (1963). The Analysis of Bloc Voting in the General Assembly: A Critique and a Proposal. American Political Science Review, 57(4), 902-917.

Luif, P. (2003). EU Cohesion in the UN General Assembly (Vol. 49). Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies.

Mattes, M., Leeds, B. A., & Carroll, R. (2015). Leadership Turnover and Foreign Policy Change: Societal Interests, Domestic Institutions, and Voting in the United Nations. International Studies Quarterly, 59(2), 280-290.

Mayer, H. (2013). The Challenge of Coherence and Consistency in EU Foreign Policy. In M. Telò, & F. Ponjaert, The EU's Foreign Policy: What Kind of Power and Diplomatic Action? London: Routledge.

Meyers, B. D. (1966). African Voting in the United Nations General Assembly. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 4(2), 213-227.

Moravcsik, A. (1993). Preferences and Power in the European Community: A Liberal Intergovernmentalst Approach. Journal of Common Market Studies, 31(4), 480.

Moravscik, A. (1995). Liberal Intergovernmentalism and Integration: A Rejoinder. Journal of Common Market Studies, 33(4), 612

Mueller, L. (2021). Challenges to ASEAN Centrality and Hedging in Connectivity Governance—Regional and National Pressure Points. The Pacific Review, 747-777.

Murray, P. (2012). Toward Policy Coherence: The European Union's Regional and Bilateral Approaches to East Asia. In Bindi, Federiga, & I. Angelescu, The Foreign Policy of the European Union (2nd Edition) (p. 270). Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution Press.

Newcombe, H., Ross, M., & Newcombe, A. G. (1970). United Nations Voting Patterns. International Organization, 24(1), 100-121.

Nguitragool, P., & Rüland, J. (2015). ASEAN As an Actor in International Fora: Reality, Potential, and Constraints. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Nilsson, M., Zamparutti, T., Petersen, J., Nykvist, B., Rudberg, P., & McGuinn, J. (2012). Understanding Policy Coherence: Analytical Framework and Examples of Sector-Environment Policy Interactions in the EU. Environmental Policy and Governance, 22(6), 395-423.

NTI. (n.d.). Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Retrieved from The Nuclear Threat Initiative: https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/convention-prohibition-development-production-stockpiling-and-use-chemical-weapons-and-their-destruction-cwc/.

NTI. (n.d.). The Hague Code of Conduct (HCOC). Retrieved from The Nuclear Threat Initiative: https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/hague-code-conduct-against-ballistic-missile-proliferation-hcoc/.

Nuttal, S. (2004). Coherence and Consistency. In C. Hill, & M. Smith, International Relations and the European Union (pp. 92-112). Oxford: Oxford University Press.

O'Neill, D. C. (2018). Dividing ASEAN and Conquering the South China Sea: China's Financial Power Projection. Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press.

Pertiwi, S. B. (2011). ASEAN Double Crisis: ASEAN Community's Construction Revisited. Positioning Southeast Asia in the Globalized World: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Southeast Asia (p. 200). Kuala Lumpur: University of Malaya.

Pertiwi, S. B. (2019). Koordinasi dan Koherensi. In M. Sugiono, Uni Eropa: Institusi, Politik, dan Kebijakan. Yogyakarta: Graha Ilmu.

Portela, C., & Raube, K. (2009, April). (In-)Coherence in EU Foreign Policy: Exploring Sources and Remedies. Retrieved from Paper Presented at the European Association Bi-annual Convention: http://www.unc.edu/euce/eusa2009/papers/portela_11B.pdf.

Portela, C., & Raube, K. (2012). The EU Polity and Foreign Policy Coherence. Journal of Contemporary European Research, 8(1), 3-20.

Qiao-Franco, G. (2020). ASEAN’s Role Expectations and the Diffusion of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities Principle in the Climate Change Context. The Pacific Review, 1079-1107.

Rasch, M. B. (2008). Voting Coherence of the EU as a Group. In M. B. Rasch, The European Union at the United Nations: The Functioning and Coherence of EU External Representation in a State-centric Environment (pp. 219-253). Leiden: Brill.

Rüland, J. (2017). The “Cognitive Prior” and the European Challenge. In The Indonesian Way: ASEAN, Europeanization, and Foreign Policy Debates in a New Democracy (pp. 32-51). Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Rüland, J. (2019). Good Global Citizen? ASEAN's Image Building in the United Nations. Asia Pacific Business Review, 751-771.

Rüland, J. (2021). COVID-19 and ASEAN: Strengthening State-Centrism, Eroding Inclusiveness, Testing Cohesion. The International Spectator, 56(2), 72-92.

Russett, B. M. (1966). Discovering Voting Groups in the United Nations. American Political Science Review, 60(2), 327-339.

Som, F. (2020, June 25). Can ASEAN achieve integration by 2025? Retrieved from The Jakarta Post: https://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2020/06/17/can-asean-achieve-integration-by-2025.html.

Stanley, D. (2003). What Do We Know about Social Cohesion: The Research Perspective of the Federal Government's Social Cohesion Research Network. The Canadian Journal of Sociology, 28(1), 5-17.

Strand, J. R., & Rapkin, D. P. (2010). Weighted Voting in the United Nations Security Council: A Simulation. Simulation & Gaming, 42(6), 772-802.

Thayer, C. A. (2012). ASEAN's Code of Conduct in the South China Sea: A Litmus Test for Community-Building? The Asia Pacific Journal, 10(34).

The Jakarta Post. (2021, May 20). Indonesia Votes ‘No’ on UN Crimes Against Humanity Resolution. Retrieved from The Jakarta Post: https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2021/05/20/indonesia-votes-no-on-un-crimes-against-humanity-resolution.html.

United Nations. (n.d.). Voting Data. Retrieved from United Nations Digital Library System: https://digitallibrary.un.org/search?ln=en&cc=Voting+Data.

UNOOSA. (n.d.). Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space: Membership Evolution. Retrieved from United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA): https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/copuos/members/evolution.html.

Utomo, T. S. (2017). Towards Legal Coherence in Trademark Law and Investment Law of ASEAN Countries Post AEC Blueprint 2025. Jurnal Hukum IUS Quia Iustum, 25(1), 49-68.

Voeten, E. (2013). Data and Analyses of Voting in the United Nations General Assembly. In B. Reinalda (Ed.), Routledge Handbook of International Organization (pp. 54-66). Oxon: Routledge.

Weatherbee, D. E. (ed.). (2019). Southeast Asia Divided: The ASEAN-Indochina Crisis. Routledge.

Woo, B., & Chung, E. (2017). Aid for Vote? United Nations General Assembly Voting and American Aid Allocation. Political Studies, 66(4), 1002-1026.

Downloads

Published

2023-05-10
Abstract 2032  .
PDF downloaded 829  .