Penerapan Ukuran Ketepatan Nilai Ramalan Data Deret Waktu dalam Seleksi Model Peramalan Volume Penjualan PT Satriamandiri Citramulia

Authors

  • Iwa Sungkawa Bina Nusantara University
  • Ries Tri Megasari Bina Nusantara University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21512/comtech.v2i2.2813

Keywords:

forecast, time series data, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Winters, means square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)

Abstract

Forecasting is performed due to the complexity and uncertainty faced by a decision maker. This article discusses the selection of an appropriate forecasting model with time series data available. An appropriate forecasting model is required to estimate systematically about what is most likely to occur in the future based on past data series, so that errors (the differences between what actually happens and the results of the estimation) can be minimized. A gauge is required to detect the required the value of forecast accuracy. In this paper ways of forecasting accuracy of detection are discussed using the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The forecasting method uses Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Winters method. With the three methods forecast value is determined and the smallest value of MSE and Mape is selected. The results of data analysis showed that the Exponential Smoothing is considered an appropriate method to forecast the sales volume of PT Satriamandiri Citramulia because it produces the smallest value of MSE and Mape.

 

Dimensions

Plum Analytics

References

Assauri, S. (1984). Teknik dan Metode Peramalan Penerapannya Dalam Ekonomi dan Dunia Usaha. Jakarta: Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi UI.

Bowerman, B. L. & O’Connell, R.T. (1987). Time Series Forecasting. Boston: Duxbury Press.

Makridakis, S., Wheelright, S.C., & McGee, V. E. (1999). Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan, (U.S. Andriyanto dan A. Basith, terj.). Jakarta: Erlangga.

Megasari, Ries Tri. (2010). Perbandingan Antara Metode Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing dan Winters Dalam Peramalan Volume Penjualan PT Satriamandiri Citramulia Berbasiskan Komputer. Skripsi Strata 1 Program Studi Statistika FST Universitas Bina Nusantara, Jakarta.

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Published

2011-12-01

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Section

Articles
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