Model Pemesanan Bahan Baku menggunakan Peramalan Time Series dengan CB Predictor


  • Tri Pujadi Bina Nusantara University



forecasting, inventory, deterministic methods, safety stock


A company that manufactures finished goods often faces a shortage of raw materials, due to the determination of the quantity of raw material ordering improper because it is done by intuition and the lack of raw material inventory reserves. This resulted in costs because inefficient production processes are inhibited or had to perform an emergency procurement of raw materials to meet customer orders. The company seeks to use the method in determining the order quantity of raw material, comprising the steps of (1) collecting historical data of raw material use, step (2) forecasting needs raw materials, step (3) calculating the order quantity forecasting based on the data by comparing the deterministic method and probabilistic methods. Calculating safety stock for each raw material is done so as to cope with the situation outside of normal conditions, such a surge in orders. In its design, the system will be developed using the Unified Modeling Language modeling language (UML) on the basis of the concept of object-oriented analysis and design (Object Oriented Analysis and Design). With the proposed implementation of the information system, the company can estimate the need for raw materials more quickly and accurately, and can determine the order quantity that is tailored to the needs. So that the costs associated with ordering and storage of raw materials can be minimized.

Plum Analytics


Baroto, T. (2002). Perencanaan dan Pengendalian Produksi. Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia.

Griffiths, G., & Payab, H. (2010). Supply chain on the heels of demand: issues of e-procurement. Journal of Global Business, 4(2), 29–35.

Makridakis, S. C., Wheelwright., Victor E., McGee. (1999). Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan. Edisi Kedua. Jilid 1. Jakarta: Binarupa Aksara.

Mathiassen, L., Munk-Madsen, A., Nielsen, P. A., & Stage, J. (2000). Object-Oriented Analysis and Design. Marko, Aalborg, Denmark.

Mose, J. M., Njihia, J. M., Magutu, P. O. (2013, May). The critical success factors and challenges in e-procurement adoption among large scale manufacturing firms in Nairobi, Kenya. European Scientific Journal, 9(13), 375–401. Diakses 21 Mei 2014 dari manufacturing_firms_in_nair

Render, B., Stair, R. M., & Hanna, M. E. (2003). Quantitative Analysis for Management. 8th Edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

Siswanto. (2007). Operations Research. Jilid 2. Jakarta: Erlangga.

Subramanian, C., & Shaw, M. J. (2004). The effects of process characteristics on the value B2BE-procurement. Information Technology and Management, 5(1-2), 161–180.

Vaidya, K., Sajeev, A. S. M., & Callender, G. (2006). Critical factors that influence e-procurement implementation success in the public sector. Journal of Public Procurement, 6(1&3), 70–99. Diakses 23 Mei 2014 dari






Abstract 513  .
PDF downloaded 1013  .