GSTAR (1;1) Modelling with Queen Contiguity for Forest Fire FRP West Kalimantan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21512/comtech.v17i2.13886Keywords:
forest fire, GSTAR, queen contiguity, FRP, spatial-temporalAbstract
Forest fires in West Kalimantan are a recurring problem that causes substantial impacts on the environment and public health. Unlike previous studies that generally focus on hotspot confidence levels or apply distance-based spatial weighting, this study models fire intensity using FRP through a spatial-temporal GSTAR (1;1) approach with a Queen Contiguity neighborhood structure. This approach enables the simultaneous analysis of fire energy dynamics across spatial and temporal dimensions in forest fire–prone areas of West Kalimantan. This study uses FRP data from the NASA FIRMS website, derived from VIIRS on NOAA-20, for the period from July to September 2024. Spatial relationships among neighboring regions are modeled using the Queen Contiguity approach, which considers shared boundaries and vertex connections between regions. The GSTAR (1;1) model can capture both temporal and spatial dependencies in FRP data simultaneously. The analysis results indicate that all model parameters are statistically significant and that the model residuals exhibit white noise characteristics. Model performance evaluation using RMSE, MAPE, and MAD indicates good accuracy: RMSE of 5.693, MAPE of 14.667%, and MAD of 3.165. The similarity between the modeled results and the observed data patterns indicates that the model effectively represents fire intensity conditions. The findings of this study are expected to support more effective data-driven strategies for the prevention and control of forest and peatland fires in West Kalimantan.
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